Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.041103 0.046469 0.052428 0.059565 0.067918 0.077429 0.089140
2025-12-28 0.033062 0.039779 0.047831 0.058296 0.071676 0.088407 0.111221
2026-01-04 0.027876 0.035403 0.045056 0.058560 0.077311 0.102967 0.141690
2026-01-11 0.023559 0.031387 0.042052 0.058018 0.081983 0.117773 0.177608
2026-01-18 0.020141 0.028023 0.039372 0.057476 0.086763 0.134456 0.223013
2026-01-25 0.017044 0.024628 0.036093 0.055459 0.089025 0.148359 0.270483
2026-02-01 0.014358 0.021439 0.032611 0.052472 0.089132 0.159111 0.318278
2026-02-08 0.012680 0.019570 0.030926 0.052209 0.094201 0.181337 0.403119
2026-02-15 0.011314 0.018009 0.029502 0.052159 0.099866 0.207508 0.515574
2026-02-22 0.010259 0.016819 0.028534 0.052809 0.107373 0.241616 0.677511
2026-03-01 0.009335 0.015726 0.027569 0.053289 0.114870 0.279976 0.891049
2026-03-08 0.008345 0.014380 0.025909 0.051971 0.117864 0.308520 1.104940
2026-03-15 0.007218 0.012656 0.023295 0.048104 0.113610 0.315256 1.248103
2026-03-22 0.006617 0.011866 0.022459 0.048204 0.120265 0.361857 1.655926
2026-03-29 0.006173 0.011329 0.022073 0.049339 0.130561 0.429652 2.327981
2026-04-05 0.005718 0.010712 0.021419 0.049675 0.138818 0.497647 3.197892
2026-04-12 0.005307 0.010133 0.020762 0.049875 0.146974 0.574099 4.420778
2026-04-19 0.004859 0.009421 0.019692 0.048700 0.150061 0.631287 5.733761
2026-04-26 0.004408 0.008654 0.018383 0.046560 0.148886 0.667167 7.022721
2026-05-03 0.004128 0.008236 0.017865 0.046677 0.156789 0.765605 9.961552
2026-05-10 0.003883 0.007867 0.017416 0.046921 0.165574 0.883430 14.521248
2026-05-17 0.003687 0.007589 0.017159 0.047736 0.177544 1.044282 22.644670
2026-05-24 0.003500 0.007312 0.016864 0.048367 0.189272 1.227090 35.940381